They've already got an HTML version of XHTML 1.0: HTML 4.01. HTML 5.0 (or maybe HTML 4.1 or whatever) should be equivalent to XHTML 1.1 at least.
One thing we tend to forget is that the entry level, with the right tutorial, IS already low for the beginning coder. CSS is quite simple, and basic XHTML is really simple to learn as well.
I don't really see it as becoming more complicated. Rather, the next HTML could very well parallel the development of XHTML, so that when XHTML comes into its own, there will be little adjustment needed.