"Sadly, everyone and their grandmother has a copy of Wordpress (or some such) and thinks that makes them a web developer! "
Just some thoughts and don't sell WP short...
I've been coming to this forum for many years and deeply respect the skills of the moderators and visitors. There is a huge span between "building websites" and being a "web developer". I DO have a degree in computer science and am more than familiar with many programming languages from BASIC to Java. I started building websites from scratch 13 years ago with old html and tables and graduated to HTML5 and CSS3 with all the steps inbetween including responsive design and JQM. I DO NOT build websites for a living...my motto is "it's a hobby, not a business." It's great fun. I get paid sometimes, but mostly I work for free on projects that interest me. What a life.
I build sites with WordPress. It's relatively easy because of my background and I can concentrate on content and design and not the code. But I can modify the code when needed. I know what's going on. My grandmother and her friends would find WP quite difficult - as well as my friends. It's not easy for the man on the street, unless you use it as a blog right out of the box.
It does NOT make me a "web developer". Maybe a "webmaster"? heehee... I just build little websites for clubs, organizations, churches, etc... I can see how building small sites could be lucrative, but it would require volume. I suppose you could just crank em out with WP.
"I'm not sure how much that will be taken over by some combination of do-it-yourself software/sites along with service companies using cheap, off-shore labor; so I'm less bullish about that type of work. "
I don't have much faith in do-it-yourself software or WP in the hands of amateurs, but cheap off-shore labor that has some skill would be a concern. I don't know...I sometimes wish I was an accountant.